Bitcoin Halving — Two Years Later, How the Cycle Played Out

The 2024 halving was supposed to fire a textbook cycle peak in late 2025. The reality has looked considerably weirder.

BTC peaked at $110,200 in January 2025, ten months after the halving — earliest cycle peak ever. Subsequent correction took the asset down to $58,400 by August before grinding sideways. Q1 2026 produced the second peak above $107K and the current $77K consolidation.

On-chain data tells a more nuanced story. Long-term holder supply hit a new ATH during the August dip, indicating the largest investor cohort did not sell into weakness. Textbook cycle did not hold partly because spot ETF inflows fundamentally changed demand structure.