Coinbase Q1 Preview — The 3 Numbers That Move COIN

Coinbase reports Q1 earnings next week. Three line items will move the stock more than headline EPS.

Subscription revenue is the most important. Q4 figure of $510M was a 35% YoY jump, mostly driven by Coinbase One, USDC interest sharing, and staking. Anything materially below $510M reads as Coinbase One growth slowing — and the stock is sensitive to that narrative.

Derivatives is second. International perps contributed about $90M last quarter, and the launch of US-regulated futures in March adds meaningfully without cannibalizing spot. Third is custody and prime — institutional custody is on a quiet tear post-ETF.